Tag: Texas '08 (page 2)

I'm going to take a break here for a spell.

We're a few hours from exit polls and results.

How are you feeling about the candidates' chances? Have you changed your predictions since this morning?

What's making you most nervous?

I'll also put up a Media Horse's A*s thread around 7pm ET for you to rant about your least favorite anchors and pundits.

See you soon and yes, we'll be covering the results through the evening. I hope you'll join us. Those threads will open with all election-related comments welcome.

Bump and Update: The Texas Democratic Party sent out this directive (pdf)to both campaigns this afternoon cautioning against what I reported below. So they obviously heard it too, although the letter went to both campaigns, not just Obama's.

Campaign workers, volunteers and/or supporters have obtained copies of blank sign-in sheets for precinct conventions and are having them filed in now with the desire of turning them in once the convention gets underway. These sign-in sheets are invalid and will not be considered in determining the allocation of delegates. See Tex. Dem. Pty. Rule. IV(B)(6).

Update: The Austin Statesman is now reporting on the alleged violations, without specifying which campaign is complaining or allegedly violating the rules.

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I'm receiving reports that contrary to Texas Democratic party caucus rules that preclude registration forms from being submitted before either 7:15 pm or the last vote at a precinct has been cast, Obama volunteers are handing out the forms at precincts today and asking people to fill them in and then collecting them. For Obama to submit the forms on the voters' behalf without the voter physically being present at the caucus would violate the rules.

The rules state:

More...

As we're waiting for news of today's election, here's a first-hand account I received from a Texas voter. All of you who voted today are welcome to post your stories in the comments:

Just wanted to write in and let you know what's going on here today in Houston. (FYI, I'm white, male, in my 30's, and support Clinton)

I went to vote this morning in the Meyerland/Bellaire area of Houston. (The area has a real mix of people - different ages, races - and is very much a middle to middle-upper income.) When I left, I was stopped and asked to participate in an exit poll survey sponsored by all of the networks and major papers. This is the first time I've ever been asked to do this.

As I entered my polling place wearing a Clinton button, Obama's supporters (about 6 of them) literally gave me dirty looks and turned their back on me. Other voters were greated with hellos, good mornings, and hope you'll vote for Obama. The attitude of Obama's campaigners to me was rather nasty. It was a real turn-off to me, and if he's the nominee, I'll really have to think twice about voting in the general election.

Other information: At my polling place there were TONS of Obama signs all over the place, not a single Clinton sign. As I mentioned, about 6 Obama people outside, not a single Clinton person. Inside the polling place, it looked like 2 of the 10 or so machines were off-line (a tech was there working on them), but there was no wait. (A precinct judge said it was very busy at 7am).

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A newly released Fox News Ohio poll (pdf) of likely Democratic voters in Ohio has Hillary ahead of Barack Obama 46% to 38%. The margin of error is + or - 4%.

CNN takes a look at the "poll of polls" in both Ohio and Texas.

Two "poll of polls" calculated by CNN show competitive races in both Texas and Ohio. The Texas "poll of polls" of likely primary voters shows Obama at 48 percent, Clinton at 44 percent, and 8 percent unsure. In Ohio, Clinton has 47 percent, Obama has 40 percent, and 13 percent are unsure.

The "poll of polls" includes: [More...]

The Houston Chronicle reports on the increase in Republicans voting in the Democratic primary to ensure Hillary doesn't win. Some examples:

There is scattered evidence across the state that some Republicans may be voting Democratic, at least for a day. In one precinct in the suburban Houston neighborhood of Kingwood, where 82 percent of voters cast ballots for President Bush in 2004, Democrats were outvoting Republicans 4-to-1 last week in early voting.

....Daron Shaw, a political science professor at University of Texas, said surveys he conducted in two state legislative districts in the Dallas-Fort Worth area revealed that almost a quarter of voters with a history of voting in GOP primaries planned on participating in the Democratic primary.

Here's a Texas pollster:

"The argument I've seen is, 'Let's get rid of Clinton once and for all,' " said Ralph Bordie, who conducts the IVR Poll in Texas.

Bordie's latest statewide poll released last week found that 15 percent of Texas Republicans who said they will support the GOP nominee in November plan nonetheless on voting for Obama next week.

I complained about this last week. I'm still complaining. Democrats, not Republicans and Independents, should pick our party's nominee.

Update: Pamela at the Democratic Daily weighs in on this.

I wrote earlier about the Daily Texan's endorsement of Hillary. A comment to my post made me do some checking.

Here's the thing. In the debate last night, Barack Obama pointed out that every major Texas newspaper has endorsed him. The Daily Texan says it's a major paper who hasn't endorsed Obama, but leaving that aside, Obama's right and here's the list.

What Obama didn't point out was that in 2004, except for the Corpus Christi Times, every one of those papers endorsed George Bush over John Kerry.

ABC News has a pretty thorough analysis of the status of things in Texas, and which way different demographics are breaking.

There's three problems for Hillary in Texas, and they don't sound small.

• 1/3 of the delegates will be awarded based on a caucus held at the conclusion of the primary.

• Delegates are apportioned partially by Democratic voter turnout in prior elections

• The primary is open to Independents

The significance: Obama does better in caucuses and primaries where Independents can vote.

The places with the greater amount of liberal and African American voters (Dallas, Houston, Austin) had greater voter turnout than the Latino communities in prior years, so even if Hillary gets a great Latino turnout, she won't score as many delegates. [More...]